Time to jump in the time machine and take a look back at previous #4 overall picks. Let's go back 20 years shall we:
2009 - Evander Kane
2008 - Alex Petriangelo
2007 - Thomas Hickey
2006 - Nicklas Backstrom
2005 - Benout Pouliot
2004 - Andrew Ladd
2003 - Nik Zherdev
2002 - Joni Pitkanen
2001 - Stephen Weiss
2000 - Rostislav Klesla
1999 - Pavel Brendl
1998 - Bryan Allen
1997 - Roberto Luongo
1996 - Alexandre Volchkov
1995 - Chad Kilger
1994 - Jason Bonsignore
1993 - Paul Kariya
1992 - Todd Warriner
1991 - Scott Lachance
1990 - Mike Ricci
1989 - Stu Barnes
That is quite the list eh?
Let's try to categorize this bunch.
Stars: Backstrom, Luongo, Kariya
Above average: Pitkanen, Weiss
Solid NHLers: Ricci, Barnes, Warrier, Lachance, Kilger, Klesla, Ladd,
Busts: Bonsignore, Volchkov, Brendl
Headcase: Zherdev (yeah, he get's his own category)
Too early too tell: Kane, Petriangelo, Hickey, Pouliot (was boarderline bust until he showed signs in Montreal last season)
So if you remove the 4 that are still TBD than here is what your looking at:
* 18.75% chance you'll get a star
* 12.5% chance you'll get an above average NHL player
* 43.75% chance you'll get a solid NHLer
* 18.75% chance you'll bust out
* 6.25% chance you'll get a headcase
Look, the numbers don't get better the further down you go but my point is the chances of getting a star with this pick are not that great. The chances of getting say, another Klesla, are (which is exactly whom Gormley reminds me of). We don't have the time to see if #4 pans into a star, the last thing we need is another Klesla and based off previous draft history I have no faith that out of the 3 d-men we'd select the right one AND properly develop said player.
If I could move the #4 for say a Jason Spezza type star player and somehow make salaries work - I do it and don't look back.
-LTL
