Prediction time.
Yep, it's that time of year again. Time to put my ass on the line so we can all look back in wonder or laughter.
Last year was not pretty in a lot of ways including my prediction that the Jackets would build off their previous season and make the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Wrong.
So what happened?
Not only did the Jackets miss the playoffs by a cannon's shot - they fired their coach, key players regressed and ended up with yet another lottery pick.
In short last year was more Booo! Jackets than Blue Jackets.
So with my prediction record in mind, let's take a look at this season.
I've made it no secret around these parts my disappointment with the offseason. This team could use another top 6 center and has a real problem moving the puck on their blueline - yet, neither were addressed.
For a team that has missed the playoffs 8 out of 9 seasons to stick with what is essentially the status quo from a year ago is unacceptable to me.
GM Scott Howson did add Ethan Moreau but his biggest move was turning over the entire coaching staff with a group that has a total of zero games of head coaching experience at the NHL level. That could be good or that could be bad. I am intrigued with this coaching staff, especially with how they will handle the young players, but there are no more benefits of the doubt - I need results.
I will give Scott Howson credit for sticking to his guns with what is sure to be heavy pressure from management to make some kind of move. He believes in his core group and that enough improvement will be made from within to make this team a playoff contender once again.
One thing is for certain and that if this team falters again there will be no shadows to hide behind or coaches to fire. This is without question Scott Howson's team now and the success/failure of it rides squarely on his shoulders.
PLAYOFF MUSTS - what has to happen for CBJ to make dance
I've said this all offseason but if Rick Nash wants to get paid like the man he's got to play like the man. Nash is tied at 16th overall in the league for the highest paid players at 7,200,000 this season. Last year he finished tied for 36th overall in points in the league. Not good enough. He must have an 80 point season and carry this team when it needs him the most both on and off the ice.
Steve Mason is the undisputed #1 man between the pipes and he needs to play like it. While Mason salvaged what was truly one of the worst sophomore slumps in the history of sophomore slumps down the stretch of last season he needs to continue that play when the games actually mean something.
This new coaching staff must hit the ground running and continue it over the 82 game grind. They must get buy in on their system and must get everything they can out of the young skill in this lineup.
Jake Voracek must break out. If he leads this team in scoring this team makes the playoffs.
Captain obvious here - but the Jackets must do better in OTs/Shootouts.
Antoinne Vermette must build on his personal best 65 point season last year.
Special teams must be special. Teams can make the playoffs with a bad powerplay (See CBJ two years ago and the Phoenix last season) but it sure does make things easier if it finishes at least top 15.
They must get more goal scoring. The finished 21st in the league in average goals for with 2.68 goals per game and that just won't cut it.
They must get more points against Eastern Conference opponents.
They must get more production out of Derick Brassard.
Nikita Filatov must score 20 goals or more.
The Jackets must have a surprise player or two. Be it a callup who makes an unexpected contribution or a veteran has a career year.
PLAYOFF BUSTS - what can't happen for CBJ to make dance
This team can't come out like a ball of fire under the new coaching staff and then fade down the stretch.
They can't afford any extended losing streaks. I don't need to remind anyone of the 21 losses over that 23 game stretch last season. Frankly I don't think this team can afford even a 5 game losing streak.
They can't get inconsistent goaltending. I really don't care who carries the load between the pipes be it Mason or Garon but they need reliable play between the pipes.
If they don't improve with their transition out of their own end this team will go nowhere.
This team is deeper than most think but like most teams, they can't afford to many long term injuries to key players.
Can't have our combined 8.4 million dollar 3rd line (Umberger, Pahlsson, Moreau) out there just to check and lead. We need offense out of that group.
Barring a trade if Kris Russell isn't able to fill that much needed puck mover void then this team is in trouble.
It took 95 points to make the playoffs as the 8th seed last year in the Western Conference. I think it will take a similar number this year.
The Jackets can't be swiss cheese on defense and give up 3.04 goals per game like they did last season.
The Jackets can't be a doormat in the Central and get walked on by Detroit, Chicago, Nashville and St. Louis.
I think the Jackets will have a much better season than last year as even the Jackets couldn't have as much go wrong as they did one year ago. My biggest issue is as much as I want to believe I'm just not convinced the Jackets can make enough improvements from within to leap frog all of the teams in front of them to make the playoffs.
The bottom line for me is if this year's Jackets really have playoff aspirations they must play like a sum of all its parts or I fear this will be yet another year of missed playoffs.
PREDICTION: 90 points - 10th in West
Then again, that is why they play the games!
Also want to thank Michael and Melinda for t-shirt orders!!!
GO JACKETS!!
-LTL
